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2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

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2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:50 pm

Hi all...

A little update because I'm seeing internet activity "flare" up(Pun intended) on some fear-driven sites today....Nothing to worry about.

Yes, a flare is incoming...Opinions vary on arrival time and density.(estimates for arrival vary from Tuesday PM impact to NASA'a estimate of Thursday)
Me thinks Wed AM PST at best personal estimate....

On this one not too worried myself but I do expect an uptick in earthquake activity for the next 4-5 days as there is a coronal hole stream(also from the Sun) that will be arriving shortly after the CME hits weakening our shield slightly.(It will be in flux while recovering from the impact when the stream arrives)

Too early to tell on est. magnitudes and most likely areas of effect for quake locations yet....I'll be watching OLR(outgoing long-wave radiation) maps to try to pinpoint areas of interest(Deep stuff and not going to explain it here keeping it simple)....

Magnitude 6+ is what I'll be trying to pinpoint, if anything can be predicted at all.....Good opportunity to try to show this but as any on here for any length of time already know I've made it abundantly clear already that this is not an exact science..... yet.

From initial looks I'm saying SE Asia/Philippines but this will change as the OLR maps change in the coming days...Ring of fire area.

Again, NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT....(in bold and big from previous request made here so no one misses it...lol.)


NASA SPIRE prediction...(will remain real-time visual here).....Prediction here estimates Thursday hit at the same time as the coronal hole stream.
Image



KP INDEX....(Real-Time visual).......Will show impact when it hits...Green=Good----Red=Storm)
Also used to be aware of space events and potential health effects while in storm...
Image


More to come later all... Fun Stuff!..Be well


~D



.
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby kenjabroni » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:17 pm

I love the info you give on this Driven. I watch SO over on youtube because of you now and he seems to have a lot of good info there. Thank you
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:38 am

kenjabroni wrote:I love the info you give on this Driven. I watch SO over on youtube because of you now and he seems to have a lot of good info there. Thank you



Thanks Ken. :) It somehow became a passion of mine a long time ago...It is very interesting to see the results, and misses, so we continue to learn. SO's is a massive resource to learn and then branch out from for deeper perspectives.(If you can even go deeper then Ben does...lol...Unlikely/Hard to do indeed.)....Enjoy.

OK, Update this AM....Valentines day so I don't know how closely I'll be watching this later since my higher passion is my wife and little girl. :)


I'm going to go WAY OUT on a limb here on trying to see how "Lucky" I get on this one.....I'm doubling down on the Philippines for an EQ hit.....We'll see as you all know, and I'll say over and over, "This science isn't perfect...Yet."...lol.

CURRENT blot echo's on OLR maps are showing anomalies in the Fiji/Samoa area so that's of note......More interesting to me right now though is the smaller anomaly in the Sulu Sea area.
OLR Map (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml) (click the "Latest daily products" map in the second row in the Anomalies area to open the map.)

I say more of note because we have a few factors there...Incoming CME/Coronal hole stream/OLR anomaly/ AND a "Earth Spot" forming there...Basically a storm for those that don't know the earth spot reference.
Here's the Earth wind map.....Move the earth view to the Philippines and you'll see what I'm referencing brewing up in the Sulu Sea right now between Palawan and Mindanao....that's also a fault line.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-207.51,-14.59,962

Fiji does have a much larger/well established storm off it's S/W coast so there's that too..... :rolleyes:

Once again, we'll wait and see... Most likely nothing hit's and I have to change my moniker to "DR1VENbySPECTULATION" ... lol. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Way, Way, Way out on a limb here...Outside my comfort zone for sure.


Have a great day all....Watch the grids above for the changes as they hit the next few days.....Be well.


~D




.
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:41 pm

Hmmm....

Fiji just had a 5.0 at 14:57 UTC Standard(2 hours ago)...Interesting but that's a miss for now.... I'm looking for 6.0+

Still of note.

~D
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby Oldrek » Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:47 am

DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE wrote:Hmmm....

Fiji just had a 5.0 at 14:57 UTC Standard(2 hours ago)...Interesting but that's a miss for now.... I'm looking for 6.0+

Still of note.

~D


Might be a miss in your book, but I call it pretty darn impressive. :shock: Just stumbled across this and will have to do more investigation into your findings and process to get caught up if I can. I'm not to brightest candle on the cake sometimes. :blush:

Keep up the good work, :thumbup:

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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:14 am

Oldrek wrote:
DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE wrote:Hmmm....

Fiji just had a 5.0 at 14:57 UTC Standard(2 hours ago)...Interesting but that's a miss for now.... I'm looking for 6.0+

Still of note.

~D


Might be a miss in your book, but I call it pretty darn impressive. :shock: Just stumbled across this and will have to do more investigation into your findings and process to get caught up if I can. I'm not to brightest candle on the cake sometimes. :blush:

Keep up the good work, :thumbup:

Oldrek


I'm just a guy with some exposure to it...Anyone can learn this stuff if they want to Oldrek.
I've been studying it for about 7-8 years now roughly consistently but was always a general observer from afar before that....I stumbled across a guy named Ben on YouTube way back and he really kick started my education/passion back then initially.

It's wordy stuff to be sure, but it's easily understandable with exposure and time...The trick initially was to just hang in there and keep watching....It became understandable with time and repetition.

The "SO" Ken and I were referring to is "Suspicious Observers"....A community of thousands out there of open-minded/Science-backed Observers on Space Weather in general....Strongly recommend Ben's Channel if you want to look into it....The main thing on Ben that's so important for me is that he's not FEAR-Based....Fear promoting websites are nothing more than click-bait no matter the science backing their fear mongering.

I see even FOX news added themselves to the click-bait this AM....Fear title to get you to click it, but then a small disclaimer stating it's no big deal in small print...There's even a few bits of misinformation in the small article.
(http://www.foxnews.com/science/2018/02/14/solar-storm-could-strike-earth-thursday-what-need-to-know.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fworld+%28Internal+-+World+Latest+-+Text%29)

You can check out SO's here....I strongly suggest checking out the "Sun Series" first and then just subscribe and watch the daily updates...It's like 5 min of each morning and easy...You can expand outward from there if you even care to....Series link here but clicking on his main page you can see the dailies...https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/playlists?disable_polymer=1

If you want a different take you can click back on a few of my previous threads....nice meeting you Oldrek. :thumbup:



UPDATE:---------- Flare hit and as expected it was really a non-event...We'll be watching the coronal stream for more info as it arrives here in the next 24 or so..... no earthquakes of note.

OLR map shifted...looking on the east coast of the Philippine's now...Strongest point off the SE tip of Davo but stays east of the islands running north all the way up to Naga.....We.Shall.See. :rofl:


Make it a great day all.....

~D


.
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby Oldrek » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:41 pm

Copy thanks and the pleasure is mine. :thumbup:

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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:39 pm

SOOOOOooooooooooo.......

We had another 5 pointer hit in the watch areas I mentioned....Still a miss....Not 6+ :( (good for all concerned but bad for the prediction analysis)

This time it moved to where I was watching west of the Philippines...

M 5.0 - 150km ESE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

Time
2018-02-16 02:28:53 (UTC)
Location
14.463°N 146.923°E
Depth
12.2 km

I'm going to call this a fail even both areas hit...needed 6.0+ for my satisfaction.... Oh well....Live and learn...lol. :rofl:


More to come in the future folks...calling this event for now.


Have a great weekend all.


~D
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby Oldrek » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:40 pm

DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE wrote:...I'm going to call this a fail even both areas hit...needed 6.0+ for my satisfaction.... Oh well....Live and learn...lol. :rofl: ...~D


The mere fact that you predicted the area and only missed by 1 tells me this is worthy of further research. Nicely done sir. Don't be too hard on yourself as I believe you're on the right track and thanks for the heads up. Just let me know if it's hitting the San Andreas or further north so I can batten down the hatches. :eek:

Keep up the good work,

Oldrek
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby North County Guy » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:10 pm

7.2 in Mexico.
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Re: 2/13/18--Incoming CME...No big deal.

Postby DR1VENbyKNOWLEDGE » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:31 pm

North County Guy wrote:7.2 in Mexico.



saw that....right after I called it quits on this one....lol

Ben at SO had it on his alert map but I find if your always on alert in the ring of fire something is going to hit. :rolleyes:

I try not to be on alert for too many areas at once but then again he has a much better grasp on this than I do.....regardless, chalk up another win for the SO's!
In honor of RebNavy...RIP buddy. You made me smile. :)

Postby rebnavy1862 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:00 pm
Driven, are you sure you are from Kalifornia? You make a lot of sense.
Reb"Then call us Rebels if you will, we glory in the name, for bending under unjust laws and swearing faith to an unjust cause, we count as greater shame". Richmond Daily Dispatch May 12 1862
Semper Fi, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Remember The Alamo, and Aide'toi et Dieu T'aidera!
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