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EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

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EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

Postby ReadyMom » Mon May 01, 2017 8:47 am

:caution: I'm going to start a new thread, because this is an on-going situation and with all the news, the thread could get big. I guess I'll make a new thread each month, as long as this Korea situation continues. Feel free to add headlines as you come across them! -k


US national security adviser says 'be prepared for military action against North Korea'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 11221.html

America's National Security Adviser has said America should be “prepared” to take military action against North Korea.

Lieutenant General HR McMaster called on other world powers to prevent the rebellious regime from developing a nuclear arsenal, saying the state was acting in "open defiance of the international community".

Although he said the Trump administration would prefer to "work with others" to resolve the issue "short of military action", he said the US must be prepared for its armed forces to intervene.

“North Korea poses a grave threat to the United States, our great allies in the region, South Korea and Japan ... but also to China and others. And so it's important, I think, for all of us to confront this regime,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

“This regime that is pursuing the weaponisation of a missile with a nuclear weapon. And so this is something that we know we cannot tolerate ... The President has made clear that he is going to resolve this issue one way or another."

He added: “It may mean ratcheting up those sanctions even further and it also means being prepared for military operations if necessary."

President Donald Trump said on Saturday said he would "not be happy" if North Korea carried out another missile test, adding that his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping would likely feel the same.

He refused to say whether this meant military action, saying: "I don't know, I mean, we'll see." He added: “We shouldn't be announcing all our moves. It is a chess game. I just don't want people to know what my thinking is.”

Mr Trump also called the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un “a pretty smart cookie” for being able to hang onto power after taking over the isolationist state at a young age.

On Saturday, a North Korean mid-range ballistic missile appeared to fail shortly after launch, the third such failure this month.

North Korean ballistic missile tests are banned by the United Nations because they are seen as part of the North's drive to produce a nuclear-armed missile that could reach the US mainland.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Mon May 01, 2017 8:56 am

Defiant North Korea Warns Of More Atomic Tests, Will Boost Nuclear Deterrence "To The Maximum"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... ce-maximum

North Korea's regime defied an increasingly broader chorus of voices, including the US, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia, saying on Monday that it will continue its nuclear weapons tests, and warned it would "speed up to the maximum” its measures for bolstering its nuclear deterrence in response to the U.S. increasing "aggression and hysteria" against the country, a North Korea Foreign Ministry spokesman says in statement distributed by the official Korean Central News Agency.

"Now that the U.S. is kicking up the overall racket for sanctions and pressure against the DPRK, pursuant to its new DPRK policy called 'maximum pressure and engagement', the DPRK will speed up at the maximum pace the measure for bolstering its nuclear deterrence," a spokesman for North Korea's foreign ministry said in a statement carried by its official KCNA news agency. North Korea's "measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership," the spokesman said.

North Korea has carried out five nuclear tests and a series of missile tests in defiance of U.N. Security Council and unilateral resolutions. It has been conducting such tests at an unprecedented rate and is believed to have made progress in developing intermediate-range and submarine-launched missiles. The communist nation test-launched a missile on Saturday which Washington and Seoul said was unsuccessful, but which nevertheless drew widespread international condemnation.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said a "major, major conflict" with North Korea is possible over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, while China said last week the situation on the Korean peninsula could escalate or slip out of control.

Over the weekend, Trump said a "major, major conflict" with North Korea is possible over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, while China said last week the situation on the Korean peninsula could escalate or slip out of control. As preemptive deterrence, the US has sent the nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group and the Michigan nuclear sub to waters off the Korean peninsula to join drills with South Korea.

A diplomatic row was averted over the weekend, when South Korea said the United States had reaffirmed it would shoulder the cost of deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to counter the North Korean threat, days after Trump said Seoul should pay for the $1 billion battery. As Reuters reports, in a telephone call on Sunday, Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster contradicted the president, and reassured his South Korean counterpart, Kim Kwan-jin, that the U.S. alliance with South Korea was its top priority in the Asia-Pacific region, the South's presidential office said.

While the recent THAAD deployment has drawn protests from China, which says the powerful radar that can penetrate its territory will undermine regional security, and from residents of the area in which it is being deployed, the United States is seeking more help from China to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development.

Trump, asked about his message to North Korea after the latest missile test, told reporters: "You'll soon find out," but did not elaborate on what the U.S. response would be.

"There is nothing right now facing this country and facing the region that is a bigger threat than what is happening in North Korea," White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus told ABC's "This Week."
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ajax727 » Mon May 01, 2017 9:31 am

It don't look good at this point , nk just keeps pushing the issue and Trump want back down his line in the sand is not idle words . News reports from other countries that i have read , seems to be pointing toward a show down by there wording . China seems to be the key , China also seems to be still on the fence , they are massing troops at the boarder but what they will do is still unknown hold the line or move forward or who they will target , nk is there puppet and a buffer zone .
I am still looking for a coup to happen , we have in the past removed leaders directly or indirectly to change the coarse a country leader has set them on .
Sad to say but only time will tell , the world can change in a flash or in this case several bright flashes . I will say it might be time to go over the check list and be ready for what might happen . Hopefully things will calm down if not then all we can do is be prepared and ready .
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Tue May 02, 2017 9:30 am

Here's the headlines on Korea that I'm finding today:

Screen Shot 2017-05-02 at 10.34.46 AM.png
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Satellite images reveal North Korea is preparing to trial its arsenal of submarine rockets amid fears of an impending nuclear test
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ckets.html

Satellite images have revealed how North Korea is preparing to trial its arsenal of submarine rockets amid fears of an impending nuclear test.

Pictures of the Nampo Naval shipyard on the country's west coast show dictator Kim Jong-un has 'imported' a new barge so his navy can carry out underwater test missile launches.

The 68ft barge is identical to another seen at the Sinpo South shipyard on the east coast which has been involved in up to six test launches since 2014.

ImageSatellite images have revealed how North Korea is preparing to trial its arsenal of submarine rockets amid fears of an impending nuclear test. Pictures of the Nampo Naval shipyard (pictured) on the country's west coast show dictator Kim Jong-un has 'imported' a new barge so his navy can carry out underwater test missile launches

According to 38North, which monitors North Korea, there has been no sign that the barge was constructed on the west coast, suggesting it may have been acquired from abroad.

The design is similar to a Russian submersible test stand barge, but it is not clear which country it was imported from.

They are often used to test missile tubes and launch systems before they are installed in submarines

According to 38North, which monitors North Korea, there has been no sign that the barge was constructed on the west coast, suggesting it may have been acquired from abroad.

The design is similar to a Russian submersible test stand barge, but it is not clear which country it was imported from.

They are often used to test missile tubes and launch systems before they are installed in submarines.

38North said: 'The discovery of a second missile test barge may have a number of implications for the future of North Korea’s SLBM program that appears to be an important priority for Kim Jong Un.

'A key consideration is the timing of the acquisition of the barges. If both were acquired at the same time, it would imply that Pyongyang had planned a more extensive test program than it has so far conducted.

'However, since the second barge seems to have been acquired three years after the first, this could mean that North Korea is planning to accelerate its SLBM test program to include a west coast component or develop new SLBM designs, or that it may deploy a ballistic missile submarine with the West Sea Fleet. None of these possibilities are mutually exclusive.'

The satellite images, both taken on April 19, come amid fears North Korea is plotting to carry out a sixth nuclear test and amid heightened tensions between Pyongyang and the US.

This morning Kim Jong-un accused the US of pushing the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war after a pair of American bombers carried out training drills in the region.

The supersonic B-1B Lancers were deployed in a joint training exercise with the Japanese air forces.

North Korea said the bombers conducted 'a nuclear bomb dropping drill against major objects' in its territory at a time when US President Donald Trump and 'other U.S. warmongers are crying out for making a preemptive nuclear strike'.

'The reckless military provocation is pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula closer to the brink of nuclear war,' the North's official KCNA news agency said this morning.

The flight of the two bombers on Monday came as Trump said he was open to meeting North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in the appropriate circumstances, even though Pyongyang suggested it would continue with its nuclear tests.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Tue May 02, 2017 9:37 am

Really?
                    :| . . . :rofl:

North Korea 'deliberately detonated missile during failed weekend test because it was heading for RUSSIA'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... USSIA.html

Pyongyang test-fired a ballistic weapon on Saturday despite warnings from the US that failure to curb its nuclear and rocket trials could lead to 'catastrophic consequences'.

The missile travelled 30 miles before crashing down on an inland part of North Korea.

But it has since been claimed that Kim Jong-un's spooked officials deliberately exploded the KN-17 device shortly after launch fearing it had been fired towards Russia by accident.

According to South Korea's SE Daily, the ballistic missile would have struck 'a harbour point or a Russian territory' if it had not failed.

'It is for this reason that North Korea intentionally destroyed the missile,' the website reportedly said.

A source is quoted as saying the launch target was 'different from the previous direction' and that 'in the past, we fired 89-90 degrees to the east, and the projectile fell off the East Sea. But the angle of this shot was 49 degrees.'

In the wake of the launch Russia's chairman of defence and security, Victor Ozerov, reportedly said its air defences in its eastern territories had been put on high alert.

He said: 'The air defence of the Russian Federation in the Far East has been put on high alert. We control the airspace in the zone of responsibility of the Russian air forces.'

On Saturday, Japan said the missile is believed to have traveled about 30 miles and fallen on an inland part of North Korea.

Analysts say the KN-17 is a new Scud-type missile developed by North Korea. The North fired the same type of missile April 16, just a day after a massive military parade where it showed off its expanding missile arsenal, but U.S. officials called that launch a failure.

Some analysts say a missile the North test fired April 5, which U.S. officials identified as a Scud variant, also might have been a KN-17. American officials said that missile spun out of control and crashed into the sea.

It comes days after Vladimir Putin sent troops and equipment to Russia's border with North Korea.

The Russian President reportedly fears a huge exodus of North Korean refugees if his American counterpart, Donald Trump, launches military action against Pyongyang.

Footage emerged showing Putin reinforcing his 11-mile border with North Korea by relocating troops and equipment.

The deployment came days after it emerged that China is also sending 150,000 soldiers to its southern frontier to cope with the tidal wave of North Koreans Beijing fears would flee across the border if war breaks out.

Tensions remain high in the area amid fears North Korea is plotting a sixth nuclear weapon.

This morning North Korea accused the US of pushing the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war after a pair of strategic American bombers flew training drills with the South Korean and Japanese air forces in another show of strength.

The two supersonic B-1B Lancer bombers were deployed amid rising tensions over North Korea's pursuit of its nuclear and missile programmes in defiance of U.N. sanctions and pressure from the United States.

The flight of the two bombers on Monday came as U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be 'honoured' to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the right circumstances, and as his CIA director landed in South Korea for talks.

South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a briefing in Seoul that Monday's joint drill was conducted to deter provocations by the North.

North Korea said the bombers conducted 'a nuclear bomb dropping drill against major objects' in its territory at a time when Trump and 'other U.S. warmongers are crying out for making a preemptive nuclear strike' on the North.

'The reckless military provocation is pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula closer to the brink of nuclear war,' the North's official KCNA news agency said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military's THAAD anti-missile defence system has reached initial operational capacity in South Korea, U.S. officials told Reuters, although they cautioned that it would not be fully operational for some months.

China has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the system, whose powerful radar it fears could reach inside Chinese territory. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang again denounced THAAD on Tuesday.

'We will resolutely take necessary measures to defend our interests,' Geng said, without elaborating.

Trump warned in an interview with Reuters on Thursday that a 'major, major conflict' with North Korea was possible, while China said last week the situation on the Korean peninsula could escalate or slip out of control.

In a show of force, the United States has already sent an aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Carl Vinson, to waters off the Korean peninsula to conduct drills with South Korea and Japan.

The North is technically still at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a treaty, and regularly threatens to destroy the United States, Japan and South Korea.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Tue May 02, 2017 9:43 am

Image

North Korea threatens the 'final doom of the US' and says it’s ready for 'total war' after claiming two US bombers practiced bombing 'major objects' in Kim’s territory
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... r-war.html

Kim Jong-un has accused the US of pushing the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war after a pair of American bombers carried out training drills in the region.

The supersonic B-1B Lancers were deployed in a joint training exercise with the Japanese air forces amid heightened tensions between Pyongyang and Washington.

North Korea said the bombers conducted 'a nuclear bomb dropping drill against major objects' in its territory at a time when US President Donald Trump and 'other U.S. warmongers are crying out for making a preemptive nuclear strike'.

'The reckless military provocation is pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula closer to the brink of nuclear war,' the North's official KCNA news agency said this morning.

The agency also reportedly warned that military provocation against the North 'will precisely mean a total war which will lead to the final doom of the US.'

The US deployment comes amid rising tensions over North Korea's dogged pursuit of its nuclear and missile programmes in defiance of United Nations sanctions and pressure from America.

The flight of the two bombers on Monday came as Trump said he was open to meeting North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in the appropriate circumstances, even though Pyongyang suggested it would continue with its nuclear tests.

South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a briefing in Seoul that Monday's joint drill was conducted to deter provocations by the North and to test readiness against another potential nuclear test.

The U.S. air force said in a statement the bombers had flown from Guam to conduct training exercises with the South Korean and Japanese air forces.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula have been high for weeks, driven by concerns that the North might conduct its sixth nuclear test in defiance of pressure from the United States and Pyongyang's sole major ally, China.

China's Global Times, a state-backed tabloid that does not necessarily reflect national policy, said in an editorial late on Monday the United States should not rely on China alone to pressure Pyongyang into giving up its nuclear ambitions. --- CONTINUED at LINK, above ---
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Tue May 02, 2017 9:51 am

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North Korea launches salvo of rhetoric, threatening nuclear test 'at any time'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... t-any-time

Tensions high as US forces in South Korea announce activation of missile defence system while Kim regime condemns ‘aggression and hysteria’

North Korea has vowed to accelerate its nuclear weapons programme to “maximum pace” and test a nuclear device “at any time” in response to Donald Trump’s aggressive stance towards the regime.

The warning came as US military officials said a controversial missile defence system was now “operational” after being installed at a site in South Korea last week. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system – or Thaad – is designed to locate and intercept North Korean missiles in mid-flight, but its deployment has been met with opposition by China and confusion over who should foot the billion-dollar bill.

US Forces Korea said Thaad was “operational and has the ability to intercept North Korean missiles and defend [South Korea]”. But a US defence official told AFP the system had only “reached initial intercept capability” and more hardware would be added later this year to make it fully functional.

North Korea vowed to continue its nuclear tests in the face of what it called US “aggression and hysteria” – a reference to joint US-South Korean military drills that the North said were taking the peninsula “to the brink of nuclear war”.

Operation Foal Eagle has just ended but the USS Carl Vinson carrier group, sent to waters off the Korean peninsula, has held exercises with the Japanese and South Korean navies in recent days.

Under controversial security laws passed in 2015, Japan on Monday sent its biggest warship to escort a US supply vessel that will later join up with the carrier group.

The Izumo, whose flight deck can accommodate up to nine helicopters, left Yokosuka port near Tokyo on Monday and will accompany the supply ship for two days as far as waters off Shikoku island in western Japan, according to the Kyodo news agency.

The US vessel is then expected to refuel the Carl Vinson and other American vessels in the region.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula have been running high, with speculation last month that North Korea would test a nuclear weapon or long-range ballistic missile – provocations that Trump warned could be met with a military response.

Using the official name for the country, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), a North Korean foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency that unless Washington ended its “hostile policy” North Korea “would continue to bolster its military capabilities for self-defence and pre-emptive nuclear attack”.

The spokesman added: “Now that the US is kicking up the overall racket for sanctions and pressure against DPRK, pursuant to its new DPRK policy called ‘maximum pressure and engagement’, the DPRK will speed up at the maximum pace the measure for bolstering its nuclear deterrence.”

The statement said “measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership”.

In Washington, White House spokesman Sean Spicer played down the prospect of a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un after the president said in an interview with Bloomberg that he would be “honoured” to hold talks with the North Korean leader under the right circumstances.

“Clearly conditions are not there right now,” Spicer said. “I don’t see this happening anytime soon.”

Senior US officials have declared an end to the era of “strategic patience” with North Korea and have not ruled out a military response if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test or test-fires an intercontinental ballistic missile.

In the past few days, however, Trump has said in interviews that he would prefer to solve the standoff through diplomacy and repeated calls for China to apply more pressure on its neighbour.

On Monday a US state department spokeswoman said Washington was “open to credible talks on the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. However, conditions must change before there is any scope for talks to resume.”
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby farmer_dude48 » Tue May 02, 2017 10:08 am

Thank You Ready Mom :thumbup:
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby Gunns » Tue May 02, 2017 11:11 am

They do this all the time. Now its time for all the PR stuff for the new fat boy in NK.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Wed May 03, 2017 10:01 am

Today's Headlines:

China Issues Unprecedented Warning To Citizens In North Korea: Return Home
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... eturn-home

In an unprecedented move, the Chinese Embassy in North Korea has advised Korean-Chinese residents to return home amid concern that the North's military provocations may trigger a U.S. attack on the North.

The Korea Times reports that the embassy began sending the message on Apr. 20, five days before the North celebrated the 85th anniversary of the Korean People's Army with a show of military power, according to Radio Free Asia (a U.S.-based station specializes in North Korea).

The station cited a Korean-Chinese living in the North's capital, who said he left for China late last month after the embassy contacted him. He said he has been visiting China every two to three months but, after being told he should "stay in China for a while," left North Korea a month early.

      "The embassy has never given such a warning. I was worried and left the country in a hurry," said the man, whose name was withheld.

But he said that most Korean-Chinese residents in Pyongyang were ignoring the message.

The city's "peaceful" atmosphere, despite the global crisis due to the state's threats involving missiles and nuclear tests, might have kept them unaware of the situation, he added.

The embassy's warning indicates that China is worried that the saber-rattling North and U.S. moves to destabilize the Kim Jong-un regime might affect Chinese citizens abroad.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions

Postby ReadyMom » Wed May 03, 2017 10:06 am

The nuclear option: What a war with North Korea would look like
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... would-look

Analysts paint a picture of potential catastrophe – chemical weapons launched across borders, an artillery bombardment on Seoul, nuclear strikes on major global cities and the most pressing real-world test for America's missile defence system.

When Barack Obama left office, he reportedly told incoming president Donald Trump the most urgent challenge he would face was that of North Korea.

North Korea has been working on developing its nuclear capabilities and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

It aims to develop the capability to mount a nuclear attack on the mainland United States.

The capability is necessary to defend the country from US aggression, the country says. It’s been pursuing the technology for more than 50 years.

North Korea claims it already has the ability to shrink a nuclear bomb onto a device small enough to fit on a missile – but it doesn’t yet have a functioning long-range projectile.

The US is determined to stop the rogue state from developing such capabilities, with the Trump administration ratcheting up diplomatic and military pressure on the country.

America is also continuing a cyber-campaign aimed at sabotaging North Korea’s capabilities, and has begun deploying a missile defence system in South Korea.

President Trump has said a potential war with North Korea could kill millions, and is counting on China to exert its influence over North Korea.

Should their efforts fail, the United States has refused to rule out a military strike on North Korea, with the Pyongyang administration also threatening potential pre-emptive strikes.

Military action from either side could trigger a potentially catastrophic conflict.

The decision to strike

The United States considers it relatively unlikely that North Korea would risk its survival by provoking the US with an attack on the country or its allies.

America’s nuclear weapons and sophisticated military function as a strong deterrent.

But heightened rhetoric on both sides has North Korean analysts worried.

Jenny Town, Managing Editor of 38 North and Assistant Director of the US-Korea Institute at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, says increased tensions means there’s an increased risk of errors being made.

“It’s basically a high-risk game of chicken being played between Trump and Kim Jong-Un,” Ms Town told SBS News.

“The higher the rhetoric gets, the higher the risk of miscalculations.”

USS Carl Vinson has been redirected to the region, with the aircraft carrier involved in a joint missile defence drill with the South Korean navy.

Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst in Defence Strategy and Capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says that if North Korea keeps pursuing nuclear missile technology, it could push the United States into a first strike.

“The challenge is going to be in 18 months’ time, as North Korea gets very close to being able to put a nuclear warhead on an ICBM,” he told SBS News.

“The US would then be forced to act to prevent North Korea from being able to threaten the continental United States.”

Mr Davis says the development of a missile capable of delivering a nuclear bomb to the US mainland would be an intolerable red line for the superpower.

“We may not be able to stop it without fighting a major war on the peninsula, and we just have to get ready for that eventuality,” he said.

Ms Town is more wary.

“Having an ICBM is a big deal, but at the same time, our partners in the region would feel like the red lines are already crossed,” she said.

North Korea already has missiles capable of reaching South Korea and Japan, potentially with a nuclear warhead.

Ms Town is hopeful that diplomatic and economic pressure will bring North Korea to the negotiating table.

If development of an ICBM is a definitive red line which would trigger a major military response, President Trump needs to make that unambiguously clear in order to provide deterrence, Ms Town says.

It's advice President Trump doesn’t appear to be taking.

“I don't know. I mean, we'll see,” he said in a recent interview when asked if North Korea risked a military strike if it continued nuclear tests.

America attacks

There’s no knowing exactly what a US first strike on North Korea would look like, but analysts speculate that it would have to be a major surprise attack in order to minimise the potential for retaliation.

While the locations of North Korea’s naval and air forces are relatively easy to target, the country also operates a fleet of hundreds of mobile short- and medium-range missile launchers, according to a 2015 Pentagon report.

The United States' Defence Department believes the on-road and off-road missile launchers - the type proudly shown in North Korean military parades - would be capable of targeting sites in South Korea and Japan.

“These are the kind of things that they put in place to ensure that people have to think twice before trying to engineer some kind of pre-emptive strike or regime change, as the North Koreans have seen in other countries,” Ms Town said.

Having witnessed the overthrow of regimes in Iraq and Libya, North Korea remains committed to its ballistic missile force as a form of deterrence, Ms Town said.

The missiles are within striking distance of major, global cities such as Tokyo and Seoul, as well as a number of US bases in the region.

The Pentagon has more than 73,000 personnel deployed in Japan and South Korea.

For its part, Australia has thousands of tourists in the region, and thousands more ex-pats who live there longer term.

While the US may have the technical capability to destroy the mobile missile launchers, pinning down their precise whereabouts at any one time is a challenge.

In reality, a number of short- and medium-range missile launchers would likely survive any initial attack, Mr Davis says.

“We may not be able to have the opportunity to take out those missiles before they’re launched, which means we then have to rely on missile defence to actually shoot down those missiles,” he said.

“And missile defence is not 100 per cent effective.”

Nevertheless, the US has begun installing a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system in South Korea, elements of which may be operational within days.

North Korean retaliation

Whatever the scale of an attack, analysts say the response from North Korea would likely be swift and unforgiving.

Ms Town says that any type of military strike would spark “a kinetic response, which could very easily escalate into war.”

“It would get really ugly,” she said.

In addition to missile capabilities, the United States also suspects North Korea of maintaining a chemical weapons program, with a stockpile of nerve, blister, blood, and choking agents.

The country also has a large, responsive, conventional land-based military - much of which is positioned to attack South Korea, and which the Pentagon believes could be activated with little or no warning.

The South Korean capital of Seoul – and its 25 million residents – are just 50km from the North Korean border.

“The carnage would be horrendous,” US Senator John McCain, Chairman of Senate Armed Services Committee, recently told CNN.

Mr Davis says any attack on North Korea is likely to draw “massive retaliation”.

“In some of the worst case scenarios we’re talking massive war on the peninsula. We’re talking North Korea unleashing massive artillery bombardments at Seoul, launching chemical biological, perhaps even nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan,” he said.

China’s response

For years, China has provided a level of economic and military support for North Korea.

It has done so as a result of its own strategic calculations, says Professor Pei Minxin, an expert in US-China relations.

“For the rest of the world, the North Koreans appear to be irrational, crazy, aggressive. For China, North Korea is a very valuable piece of real estate,” he said.

“It provides a security buffer between the US and China.”

Without North Korea, America’s 28,000 troops in South Korea would be sitting right next door to China.

In 1950, the US and China were drawn into a devastating proxy war on the Korean peninsula.

But while China has been irked by the US maneuvering an aircraft carrier into the region and establishing a missile defence system on its doorstep, it's not certain the two superpowers would go to war over North Korea.

China’s support of its rogue neighbour has its limits, Mr Davis says.

“I think that they think that China is, to a degree, their security guarantor, but they probably recognise that China is not going to end up in a shooting war with the United States over North Korea,” he said.

“China would have the military option to intervene into North Korea, but the question is, would it do so? I suspect it won’t, I suspect it would keep its forces on its side of the border and just wait to see what happens.”

But war would have a significant impact on North Korea’s northern neighbour.

The fall of the regime would see streams of refugees flowing into China, analysts told SBS News.

“And in the ultimate worst-case scenario, if North Korea were to use nuclear weapons and the US was to respond with a nuclear strike, then you would get fallout drifting from North Korea into China,” Mr Davis said.

“So the Chinese don’t want war in the peninsula.”

Avoiding catastrophe

While analysts may differ on the likelihood of conflict and the strategies to prevent it, there is universal agreement that in a war with North Korea, there is unlikely to be a ‘winner’.

The US risks tens of thousands of troops in the region, South Korea and Japan risk attacks on their major cities, the North Korean regime faces oblivion and China would have to deal with a humanitarian and strategic catastrophe just two hours’ flight from Beijing.

But while no country has an incentive for conflict, the strategic calculations of North Korea and the United States may prove irreconcilable.

“The real solution to this is for the US and China to somehow work together to remove this threat," Mr Davis said. "But the question is, how do you do this without risking major war on the peninsula?”

Much of the situation is uncertain because leaders on both sides of the stand-off are unpredictable.

“It is a chess game. I just don't want people to know what my thinking is,” President Trump said in a recent interview.

“Eventually, he will have a better delivery system. And if that happens, we can't allow it to happen.”

“So we have to be prepared for that potentially.”

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has warned of “catastrophic consequences” if the world fails to stop North Korea's military development.

Ms Town says North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s pursuit of nuclear deterrence is driven by rational strategic calculations, and hopes that negotiations can bring the situation back from the brink.

Mr Davis is not so convinced.

He says the young, inexperienced Supreme Leader cannot be counted on to think logically, with his escalating rhetoric driven by a desire to consolidate power internally.

“There’s nothing the outside world can do about that, that’s purely internal North Korean politics,” he said.

“There may not be a peaceful solution to this.”
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

Postby kenjabroni » Wed May 03, 2017 8:24 pm

If, and its a big if from me, something were to happen with all this, I am hoping itll happen after Sunday. My daughter is in Northern Japan with the military and she comes home then so for me its a selfish reason. She says they havent alert level changes on base and they did some mop gear training but with fake gear. They dont feel the need to deliver the real mop gear at this time supposedly. Daughter says its cause the people in charge of issuing are lazy and dont feel like issuing anything HAHA.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

Postby theoutback » Thu May 04, 2017 1:55 am

Thanks RM!

Meanwhile we've been sending messages to fat boy........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEpyxtxj_OA

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-d ... SKCN0VZ02R
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

Postby 3ADScout » Thu May 04, 2017 5:39 am

Many of us believe that Kim is crazy but many also think it is just a persona. Kim did something that in my opinion sheds on which it really is. He went on a rant about China. We have all heard don't bite the hand that feeds you and well, he just did. China has been NK's "big brother" for years protecting the North by voting against UN Security Council actions, ignoring trade and other sanctions. China is one of a very few trade partners with NK. Going after them like Kim did, I think show he is "crazy" and lacks and ability to reasonably look at a problem. I think if he says he will strike back if attacked we should believe it.
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Re: EMP-Korea Concerns & Discussions #2 (May 2017)

Postby rickdun » Thu May 04, 2017 7:28 am

China is real concerned about NK. For the past month, they have telling their Chinese citizens that are in NK to di di out of that country.

The chinese are also concerned about a wave of hundred's of thousands of NK refugees coming to China if there would be an attack by the U.S.. If the little fat boy keeps edging China on, China may just turn off the oil to NK and then maybe the little fat boy will settle down or he may decide to nuke China. This dude is a wake job and I thought (Uncle Ho) was nuts.
"EVERY DAY'S A HOLIDAY AND EVERY MEAL'S A FEAST, SEMPRI FI DO OR DIE"
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