• Advertisement

The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Discuss Finances Here. *Note, this is not a replacement for Professional advice and should not be used for such.

Moderator: medic94

The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:15 am

Ran across an article on Zero Hedge that shed a poor light on the state of the economy. The article goes over several reasons why the economy is not doing as well as we are being told. A couple of them that were of interest to me are:

1: Public debt rose to 105% of GDP compared to just 62% in 3rd quarter 2007. Thanks Obama.
2: Commercial and Industrial loans are down 82% year over year. That is horrible. I can tell you that number is pretty damn accurate. The company I work for plays in those two industries very heavily and numbers are down considerably over the past 18 months with no end in sight. It is a huge company that does business all over the world, so this is very concerning to me. They are scrambling to find ways to keep their stock price up. They have bought back stock and cut expenses to where there is nothing left to cut short of laying off people. I am one of the few employees left that is allowed to travel for their job. All of the outside sales force has been told to do their job by phone instead of meeting with the customer face to face. VERY CONCERNING.
3: The Velocity of Money is at it's lowest point since 1949. If the Velocity of Money is low that means money is not changing hands, which has a direct impact on GDP. So how can GDP be at or above 3% if the Velocity of Money is at it's lowest point. Does not make since. Can it be that they are lying to us?? Surely they would not do that.

Here is the link to the article if ya'll would like to read it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -it-matter

Also, a very good friend of mine is a produce broker. I spoke to him a couple of days ago and he says the cost of trucking has gone up between 50-75% since the 1st of the year. Said to expect the prices of food to start going up soon. Another sign that things are not as good as we are being told.

FP
When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.
User avatar
ForwardPreppers
South Carolina State Moderator
South Carolina State Moderator
 
Posts: 5630
Images: 0
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:38 pm
Location: Georgia
Karma: 77

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby Illini Warrior » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:46 am

one of the major reasons is because we are just starting to see a little dim lite from a decade long depression - it was going bad in 2007 and Obammy just absolutely did EVERYTHING he could to destroy any sign of recovery ...

if we can hang on - the basement elements of a healthy recovery are being laid .... ''The article goes over several reasons why the economy is not doing as well as we are being told.'' .... statement like that is actually why this is nothing but another hit piece aimed at Trump - Obammy came up with an entirely new accounting & reporting system to hide his abysmal performance ...

11 months to correct 8 years of Obammy EOs - what do want?
Illini Warrior
User avatar
Illini Warrior
 
Posts: 2724
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 6:40 pm
Karma: 54

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby rickdun » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:15 pm

Doesn't sound too good, just another reason to order more LTS food items.

I expected food prices, especially produce, to go up way before now, look at all the natural disasters we've had this year, hurricanes, fires, freezing temperatures, drought, etc..
"EVERY DAY'S A HOLIDAY AND EVERY MEAL'S A FEAST, SEMPRI FI DO OR DIE"
rickdun
Pennsylvania Preppers Network
Pennsylvania Preppers Network
 
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:40 pm
Location: Pennsylvania
Karma: 18

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby sageprice » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:16 pm

You would think that the price of fuel going down that the cost of trucking would too. That doesn't compute.
User avatar
sageprice
Maryland Preppers Network
Maryland Preppers Network
 
Posts: 1326
Images: 0
Joined: Tue May 29, 2012 7:22 pm
Location: Northern AA county Maryland
Karma: 63

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:02 pm

Illini Warrior wrote:one of the major reasons is because we are just starting to see a little dim lite from a decade long depression - it was going bad in 2007 and Obammy just absolutely did EVERYTHING he could to destroy any sign of recovery ...

if we can hang on - the basement elements of a healthy recovery are being laid .... ''The article goes over several reasons why the economy is not doing as well as we are being told.'' .... statement like that is actually why this is nothing but another hit piece aimed at Trump - Obammy came up with an entirely new accounting & reporting system to hide his abysmal performance ...

11 months to correct 8 years of Obammy EOs - what do want?


Agree, that Obama came up with an entirely new accounting & reporting system. But, this is not a hit piece on Trump. The author is just trying to get out the real numbers so folks are aware of the true shape the economy is in. We are still in much worse shape then we are being lead to believe. There is no possible reason for the DOW and S&P to be where they are at based on sound economic principals. It is an illusion. You can only manipulate the numbers so long before the laws of economics will kick in and bring back a change to the norm. When that happens it will get very ugly in a hurry.

FP
When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.
User avatar
ForwardPreppers
South Carolina State Moderator
South Carolina State Moderator
 
Posts: 5630
Images: 0
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:38 pm
Location: Georgia
Karma: 77

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:04 pm

sageprice wrote:You would think that the price of fuel going down that the cost of trucking would too. That doesn't compute.


I was told the price of fuel had nothing to do with it. Evidently there are some new regulations that took into effect on Jan. 1st that caused this increase in trucking cost.

FP
When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.
User avatar
ForwardPreppers
South Carolina State Moderator
South Carolina State Moderator
 
Posts: 5630
Images: 0
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:38 pm
Location: Georgia
Karma: 77

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby Blondie » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:39 pm

Mrs. FP, we are experiencing the same budget restrictions. Travel is non-existent and most training is done via a Skype type of meeting. While we used to be able to backfill a few positions, now we are utilizing virtual assistance from other offices. Hiring has been frozen since early 2017 and will remain that way. There are rumors of downsizing and consolidation of offices.

Some good news, my local UPS hub hired some 23 casuals over this holiday season. This is a small hub and this is double their normal seasonal hiring. They are keeping on 1/2 of the casuals for another two weeks so they are working 4-5 months instead of just under 90 days. While not permanent it's a shot in the arm to the local economy.

The markets are unbelievable. Literally. Stocks, bonds, oil, metals, commodities all UP. :blink:

I'm taking Rickdunn's advice, re-stocking the pantry and other necessities. There will be fallout after serious belt tightening. It's necessary pain on the way to normalizing the economy.
Living In A Powder Keg & Giving Off Sparks
Blondie
 
Posts: 1746
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:56 pm
Location: In The Kitchen With Baby Dumpling
Karma: 46

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby Illini Warrior » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:52 pm

ForwardPreppers wrote:
Illini Warrior wrote:one of the major reasons is because we are just starting to see a little dim lite from a decade long depression - it was going bad in 2007 and Obammy just absolutely did EVERYTHING he could to destroy any sign of recovery ...

if we can hang on - the basement elements of a healthy recovery are being laid .... ''The article goes over several reasons why the economy is not doing as well as we are being told.'' .... statement like that is actually why this is nothing but another hit piece aimed at Trump - Obammy came up with an entirely new accounting & reporting system to hide his abysmal performance ...

11 months to correct 8 years of Obammy EOs - what do want?


Agree, that Obama came up with an entirely new accounting & reporting system. But, this is not a hit piece on Trump. The author is just trying to get out the real numbers so folks are aware of the true shape the economy is in. We are still in much worse shape then we are being lead to believe. There is no possible reason for the DOW and S&P to be where they are at based on sound economic principals. It is an illusion. You can only manipulate the numbers so long before the laws of economics will kick in and bring back a change to the norm. When that happens it will get very ugly in a hurry.

FP



Zero Hedge played their Obammy Card for 8 years - and hasn't been reporting the economy any better than CNN for the last year ....

hit piece ....
Illini Warrior
User avatar
Illini Warrior
 
Posts: 2724
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2010 6:40 pm
Karma: 54

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:40 pm

Zero Hedge played their Obammy Card for 8 years - and hasn't been reporting the economy any better than CNN for the last year ....

hit piece ....[/quote]

You must be looking at a different Zero Hedge then everyone else because Tyler Durden is as anti Obama as most of us here. How is this a hit piece??
When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.
User avatar
ForwardPreppers
South Carolina State Moderator
South Carolina State Moderator
 
Posts: 5630
Images: 0
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:38 pm
Location: Georgia
Karma: 77

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby angie_nrs » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:49 pm

ForwardPreppers wrote:Also, a very good friend of mine is a produce broker. I spoke to him a couple of days ago and he says the cost of trucking has gone up between 50-75% since the 1st of the year. Said to expect the prices of food to start going up soon. Another sign that things are not as good as we are being told.


I am pretty familiar with our local trucking industry and I don't think that number is accurate. I would ask your broker for sources on those numbers. ELD's had to be installed on trucks in December, but that wouldn't cause that kind of increase. I just think those numbers are bunk. However, I am seeing some inflationary prices going on at the grocery store with dairy products especially. Butter, milk, cheese, and eggs have started a steady gradual climb. It hasn't gone unnoticed....and the weekly sales are not that great.

I agree that the stock market is going nuts and is way overdue for a correction. I'm meeting with my financial adviser this week and am moving to more conservative investments b/c I don't think this is sustainable and I see a 2007 like crash headed our way. If not that, then at least some type of retraction. I think we are in a bubble and it has to burst sooner or later. My IRA went up (with my usual contributions) about 24% last year. :eek: Now it's time to protect it. I don't want to lose all my gains when things return to normal.

I'll be out shopping for bargains this week. The next month or two will be a bargain hunters dream! I'm already stocking up on Christmas wrap, bags, cards, gifts for next year or next several years. I have a tote where I put the gifts and attach a slip of what I paid for it. It makes me look really generous when it comes time for gift giving, even though I didn't spend much. :whistling:
angie_nrs
 
Posts: 864
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:00 pm
Karma: 53

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby ForwardPreppers » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:55 pm

Angie - you can call it bunk if you want but Georgia Grown, a member here some may remember, is living it. His company is a small, independent owned food brokerage out of Georgia. The trucks coming out of California and Texas were ones he mentioned.

I went onto dat.com and van/reefer (refrigerator trucks) rates at a multi year high right now. They provide a graph. It is in an article about the electronic logging device. The ELD enforcement doesn't take effect for a few more months. They said this MAY effect small companies and independent drivers who are hanging on a little longer to take advantage of the higher rates. Who knows if the shipping industry will tighten once again if the smaller folks decide to retire rather than update to new technology.

These rates right now are effecting his livelihood as some orders are being cancelled due to the high freight prices. It's only a matter of time until this is passed on to consumers in some way. It may not effect the big guys like Kroger or McDonald's but it is going to effect the small ethnic restaurants and markets first.

Just another view.

Mrs FP
When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.
User avatar
ForwardPreppers
South Carolina State Moderator
South Carolina State Moderator
 
Posts: 5630
Images: 0
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:38 pm
Location: Georgia
Karma: 77

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby Justmeandher » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:14 pm

So who's unemployment numbers are we now going with? 12 months ago, I knew O's administration was lying thru their teeth about the real numbers. 12 months later, Trump's administration now claims unemployment is now even lower. So over 12 months we've put over 90mil folks back to work? If I remember correctly, we had 90+mil that were off unemployment and just quit looking for work. So what's the story with them now? Are we still using O's common core math?
User avatar
Justmeandher
North Carolina Preppers Network
North Carolina Preppers Network
 
Posts: 168
Images: 0
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:45 am
Karma: 16

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby apache235 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:09 pm

Things may be improving, BUT, I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that the funny math used to come up with government figures hasn't changed one tiny bit. I was listening to FBN the other night and they were all sounding uber positive on how great things were going to be this year and I'm wondering, are they really that stupid? Do they know something that we don't know and they're trying to let us in on the secret? Or more likely, do they know something and don't want us to have a clue because maybe a unicorn really will walk across the stage and make everything right.
apache235
 
Posts: 73
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:02 pm
Karma: 6

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby rickdun » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:01 am

There's an old saying my grandfather and dad used to say about the government:

"Liars figure, but figures don't lie"

"Government officials are all liars, cheats and thieves"
"EVERY DAY'S A HOLIDAY AND EVERY MEAL'S A FEAST, SEMPRI FI DO OR DIE"
rickdun
Pennsylvania Preppers Network
Pennsylvania Preppers Network
 
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:40 pm
Location: Pennsylvania
Karma: 18

Re: The Economy is not as Good as they would have us believe

Postby rednecknp » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:08 pm

I am a healthcare provider in rural Kentucky and not an economist. If the economy were one of my patients it'd be on the critical list. I can tell you my patients are experiencing more and more out-of-pocket cost for their health care. Insurance is covering less (this includes Medicaid and Medicare). I work in an independent clinic and we see many clinics and doctor's offices closing or selling out to hospitals who're also having financial problems. I have many patients who are not filling prescriptions or getting needed healthcare because they can not afford it. In rural Appalachia jobs are few and far between and the ones that exist are at minimum wage. At least 2 offices in my area have had to go to non-paid time off to keep from decreasing the number of paid staff. An example is with the Flu being so bad this year I have had numerous patients who had to pay the full price $100 for 10 Tamiflu because it was not covered on their insurance.
rednecknp
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:43 am
Karma: 0

Next

Return to Financial Issues

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for the APN Email Newsletter - Enter your e-mail address below


  Links and Resources
  -Links
  -Podcasts
  -Free Ebooks



Trusted Sponsors











Copyright
For Notices of Copyright infringement and to contact our DMCA Agent please follow the link below:
Copyright Policy

For terms of use, rules, and policies please read our Disclaimer